While Turkey is escalating its provocations in the Eastern Mediterranean region, there is a continuously increasing number of reportages, analyses and talks containing fears and estimations of a possible “heated” political incident between Greece and Turkey.

Turkey is already gearing up for an imminent escalation of tensions in the marine region near Crete, while Athens remains highly concerned, especially following the statements of the Turkish Minister of Energy, Fatih Donmez, in which he announced forthcoming seismological research missions in the maritime area mapped by the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, after January 1st.

In light of all the above, there is already a number of different scenarios concerning a possible “greek military response”, in the event that Ankara escalates its provocations; at the same time, the recent announcement of the Greek PM, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has been put under the microscope of political analysts: “ I want to send a message of security to all Greeks, from Kastellorizo to Corfu and from Gavdos to Evros. I want them to know that we are confident, unshaken and well-prepared. Justice is on our side, and we have the total support of our strong allies”.

In such tense conditions, a foreign think tank has elaborated a low-intensity Greek-Turkish war scenario, which has certainly been taken into account by the Head of the Greek Government and various governmental officers.

The content of the scenario

The said scenario goes beyond the “co-exploitation or military conflict” dilemma between the two countries, as it includes a notably interesting parameter, according to which the Greek Government could actually profit from the emerging conditions.

Read the scenario’s main points:

  • The scenario cites that the Turkish army will carry out a landing on a small inhabited greek island.
  • Greece’s response will provoke a military crisis of limited duration, probably lasting a few days.
  • A foreign intervention is expected, and the USA is going to play a crucial role. Watching the Greek and Turkish militaries clashing in the wider Aegean marine region, Washington will call Ankara and Athens to engage in negotiations.
  • The French and Italian warships that are already situated in The Eastern Mediterranean will get involved in the military crisis.
  • As part of the negotiation, Greece will be able to achieve the withdrawal of the Turkish military forces from the occupied Greek island of the Turkish military forces, while Turkey will have secured, for its own interests, the opportunity to conduct, after an invitation by the Tripoli government – based on the Turkish-Libyan memorandum – investigations into the maritime area that is defined by the memorandum between the two sides.
  • The Greek side will present to the public the withdrawal of the Turkish military forces from the inhabited Greek island, to which the scenario refers, as a success and a victory of the greek armed forces. In the meantime, the loss of sovereign rights will be obscured in the collective consciousness, while Turkey will have enforced “faits accomplis” in the region, forcing Greece to the losing side.

The above points are but the main axes of a scenario. However, one should not underestimate the fact that Turkey is determined – aware of the strong regional role it plays in the area – to get what it wants by enforcing the “law of the strongest”

On the other hand, domestic political, diplomatic and journalistic circles are already looking for the future scenario of equilibrium, that is to say, one equivalent to the loss of national sovereignty resulting from co-exploitation / co-management in the Aegean, with a supposed national victory having all sides favored.